Dr. Hugh G. Dildeaux, Ph.D

What is the probability of you getting a bae? Some relatively simple statistical analysis can done to answer this seemingly complex question. As a starting point, take the following:

P(getting a bae | a date) = P(a date | getting a bae)* P(getting a bae)/P(a date)

We know that the probability of getting a date given that you have a bae is almost 1, even after accounting for those days where you piss them off. The probability of getting a date is dependent on the probability of the person being attracted to you plus the probability of asking them out well, all multiplied by the constant α.

P(a date) = α[P(attracted) + P(asked well)]

If the person is a girl, α is a random variable between 0 and 1 because bitches be cray. If it’s a guy, just make α equal 1. The probability of the person being attracted to you is the weighted average of four factors. The first probability is the probability that you are the person’s type, which is approximately 1/10. This was calculated using very complex math, including the triple partial derivative of the discretized complex gamma function, some crazy EngSci shit, and seven being evenly divided by two.

The next probability which you must take into account is the probability of you having a compatible sense of humour. If you see the person reading the Toike, give them a probability of 1! Otherwise, this probability is equal to ¼ at best.

The last probability you must take into account is how you look that day. If you’re an artsci, you have time to look nice and are socially expected to, so you have a probability of 6/7, accounting for days after a rough night out. Sorry Ms. Angie Neere, you’re probability of dressing nicely is 1/7 thanks to those lovely problem sets, lectures, midterms, readings, projects, labs, practicals, exams, etc.

Additionally, you must take into account the disciplinary shower constant β (for example, 0.70 for Mech, or 0.002 for ECE), all resulting in a probability of whether they are attracted to you.

P(attracted) = [P(type) + P(humour) + P(looking good) + β]/4

Next we must look at the probability of you having asked the person out well. Similar to the probability of the person being attracted to you, the probability of you asking them out well is the sum of other probabilities.

The first probability is the probability of you being nervous. If you have never asked someone out before and are scared shitless, you have a high probability of being nervous. Luckily for you there is a chance that the person finds this cute, so don’t lose hope! If you think they’ll like it, just give yourself a probability of being nervous of zero because you earned it. But who am I kidding, plug in 0.5.

The next thing you should take into account is your date proposal creativity, in the constant µ. Take an official creativity test online, divide your score by the maximum possible score, and use that as your constant. Just math well from there on out using the beautiful formula below and use it to finally solve the probability of you getting a date.

P(asked well) = (1 – P(nervous) + μ)/2

Thanks to the almighty Google, we can say that the average probability of getting a bae given that you had a date is about 1/6.9. This average was calculated from a vast pool of data collected from online posts on a variety of websites to help comfort lonely people, such as “e Not Alone” or “And That’s Why You’re Single R”.

As an exercise to the reader, plug in all the numbers for yourself and solve for the probability of you getting a bae today. Finally, multiply whatever probability you got by zero because let’s be real, the odds of you getting a bae are about zero if you used this as an accurate representation of whether or not you’ll find someone.